Friday, October 19, 2012

Reconsidering the Divorce Rate

I am often asked what I think about the divorce rate. Followed by the question, what do I think of the ‘fact’ that people don’t want to get married anymore? So, I decided to address these questions and share my point of view in this newsletter.

There is a pretty wide spread belief that the divorce rate in the US is about 50%, right? A number of demographers (scientists), however, believe that the rate is closer to 40%, maybe, if you study the statistics about first marriages in particular. 

To keep it simple, here is how the 50% divorce rate comes about:  the number all marriages per year determines the ‘marriage rate’.  The number of all divorces per year determines the ‘divorce rate’.   While these are not the same couples getting married and divorced in that year the ratio of the number of divorces to the number of marriages provides the ‘divorce rate’ for that year.  More simply, 100 marriages, 50 divorces = 50% divorce rate.

Simple, yes?  But not really.