Reconsidering the Divorce Rate

I am often asked what I think about the divorce rate. Followed by the question, what do I think of the ‘fact’ that people don’t want to get married anymore? So, I decided to address these questions and share my point of view in this newsletter.

There is a pretty wide spread belief that the divorce rate in the US is about 50%, right? A number of demographers (scientists), however, believe that the rate is closer to 40%, maybe, if you study the statistics about first marriages in particular. 

To keep it simple, here is how the 50% divorce rate comes about:  the number all marriages per year determines the ‘marriage rate’.  The number of all divorces per year determines the ‘divorce rate’.   While these are not the same couples getting married and divorced in that year the ratio of the number of divorces to the number of marriages provides the ‘divorce rate’ for that year.  More simply, 100 marriages, 50 divorces = 50% divorce rate.

Simple, yes?  But not really.  
Despite, the fear of becoming one of those 40 to 50% who are likely to divorce, some surveys suggest that 95% of people want to be married sometime in their life, regardless of their background and experience.  Before 1970, 80% of Americans were married.   Between 2000 and 2009 that percentage went from 57% to 52% for people over 18.  For young people the number went from 55% to 44%.  A confusing picture for most people, so consequently, it’s much easier to say there’s a 50% divorce rate!

I believe a more helpful way to think marriage and divorce risk is to consider the stages of marriage.  In my book The 7 Stages of Marriage the stages are discussed in detail:  Passion, Realization, Rebellion, Cooperation, Reunion, Completion and Explosion. 

The ‘falling in love’ Passion stage begins before marriage for many couples.  About 10% of couples who plan to marry don’t.  The good news is that they recognize their issues while they are in the first stage (the Passion stage) before life becomes complicated.   This Passion stage can continue into the early year(s) of marriage, depending on when children arrive (if they do). 

The Realization stage is next and some people realize then that they made a mistake and tend to divorce within the first year or so.   Other couples have realistic expectations and start to navigate their life together quite well.

The Rebellion stage is a time for couples to learn to negotiate their differences and the basics of problem solving.  By this time couples have been married about 3 – 7 years and divorce takes place in about 40% of the couples who will ever divorce.   This is a high risk time!

Then during the Cooperation stage couples begin to learn how to become a team building a life together or they begin to live more parallel lives forgetting to nurture the romantic love they have for each other.  Without Cooperation issues of money, children, time together, and sex are key problems. These couples are at high risk for divorce unless they seek couples therapy and/or a couples communication program. By 10 years about 60% of couples who will ever divorce do so and by 15 years about 80% of couples who will ever divorce will divorce.  

As couples approach the Reunion stage, the risk of divorce is still there but it isn’t as high.   Couples can reunite and reignite the love and passion for each other if they have nurtured their marriage enough and have maintained their commitment, their intimacy, and connection.

With time and health available to them during the Completion stage these couples can grow and flourish and enjoy their lives together.   There are examples everywhere.

Unfortunately, the Explosion stage can happen anytime for any couple and often more than once.   Depending on how they deal with their crises, traumas, and tragedies these couples may not make it.  However, all couples face challenges in their marriages one way or another.   Some grow together and some grow further apart.

The bottom line is:   the divorce rate varies depending on what happens during your journey and what stage you are in along the path.   We know that the most satisfying times of marriage are usually in the early years and then in the later years –both are times when romantic love flourishes.   The exciting part to me is that those really happy couples who have been together for a lifetime are the happiest and almost always more in love with each other than ever! 

To hear more about restoring, enhancing, strengthening and transforming your relationship visit my website and listen to some of my audio and media clips.

There are many tools available to help you meet the challenges of dating, getting married, being married and successfully navigating your way through the 7 Stages.   The Relationship Center is here to help you learn to restore, enhance, strengthen, and transform your relationships.

(Census Bureau, National Vital Statistics).

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2011/12/14/barely-half-of-u-s-adults-are-married-a-record-low/;  http://www.prb.org/Articles/2010/usmarriagedecline.aspx

http://www.smartmarriages.com/7.html

http://ist-socrates.berkeley.edu/~ucbpl/docs/61-Timing%20of%20Divorce00.pdf

http://marriageandfamilies.byu.edu/issues/2001/April/children.aspx